What about sex love Samuel Wells Williams Miss Ye Tan published several articles urging China to co

What about sex love Samuel Wells Williams Miss Ye Tan published several articles urging China to continue to practice family planning. Many users want me to refute her, I laugh. del monte foods uae August 14, 2012 Ye Tan again in the British "Financial Times" published an article online Chinese "anti-intellectual population growth theory can be laid to rest (a)." In the end of the article, said: "We can not expect the United States who live in sparsely populated states of the Chinese del monte foods uae population issues irrelevant, who advocated liberalization fertility." Since Miss Ye pick your door to reciprocate. I also had to write a few words. Ye Tan graduated from Fudan University, Department of History Ph.D., professor of the history by the school population Ge Jianxiong, Cao Shuji great impact, such as her recent article said: "Mr Ge Jianxiong editor of six volumes of" China Population History "(published in Fudan University Press, 2000) is a contemporary Chinese history study population most authoritative writings, Mr. Cao Shuji write them four, five volumes discuss del monte foods uae population Ming and Qing Dynasties, you can glimpse see the leopard. "she quoted Ge, Cao population data to illustrate the continuing family planning necessity. Ming and Qing Cao Shuji that has fallen into the Malthusian trap. To avoid the Malthusian trap, China should carry out family planning. James Lee and Professor Wang Feng did not think Chinese Qing Dynasty into the Malthusian del monte foods uae trap. Cao Shuji retorted: "Faced with James Lee and other new theory, scholars not only need to rewrite history since the Qing Dynasty of China's population, economic and social history, del monte foods uae and even had to re-lay the contemporary understanding of the theory of Chinese family planning policy." del monte foods uae ( "Historical Research" 2002 1) I am "on del monte foods uae the Qing dynasty and Ge Jianxiong Mr population" ("Social Science Forum" 2010 No. 1) in refuted Ge Jianxiong, Cao Shuji on the Qing dynasty population point of view. Ye Tan said: "According to population estimates by experts, China's population in 2006 total fertility rate (ie a couple lifetime number of children) increased from 1.8 to about 1.87, from an annual del monte foods uae average of 0.02 if the slight rebound in 2020 control objectives del monte foods uae than 1.45 billion exceeded 29 million. "Miss Ye Tan can rest assured that expert estimates of population has always been wrong (since 1980, has never been accurately), 2010 census del monte foods uae confirmed the 1996-2010 birth the average rate of only 1.4 yuan, of which 2010 is only 1.18. 1.18 fertility rate means the next generation than the previous generation reduced by almost half. Ye Tan said, "Due to environmental stability, and the government encourages ...... population del monte foods uae increased from 540 million in 1949, rising to (the late 1960s) staggering over 800 million. Difficult for us to forget the tragic death of their folder Ditch the right, del monte foods uae but in the wild population growth era, because of population growth, but cheap life, human dignity is negligible. individual value of life is meaningful, when the population becomes eye-popping numbers, the individual's life is the dust cover. "In fact, after 1949 China's population growth is not "government encouragement", in fact, at that time China's del monte foods uae population growth is synchronized with the world, 1950, 1970, 1980, China accounted for just 22% of the population, fertility was also associated with the development of all the world countries is high. China's population increase is due to the decline in mortality is the "little death", del monte foods uae not "born of too much", because life expectancy increased from 35 years in 1950 was extended to 63 years in 1970 (World Bank 2010 data) . It is the survival of the population at that time laid the reform del monte foods uae and opening up economic prosperity demographic foundation. "Population growth, human life but cheap" is not the fact that the U.S. population growth rate is faster than China and Europe, not necessarily cost more American del monte foods uae lives. Ye Tan said: "If the birth rate of 1.2% according to calculations, 20 years later, China's population growth will reach 1.65 billion; Once growth recovered to 2.3%, then 20 years later, China's population will reach 2,048,500,000, then, China was the first to relocate to Mars probably find the resources of space. visible on exponential growth, del monte foods uae once the growth rate exceeded a certain sector, del monte foods uae will be explosive growth. "Obviously, Ye Tan is the birth rate and natural growth rate confuse. Natural growth rate = birth rate - mortality. If Ye Tan is the birth rate of 1.2 percent, del monte foods uae according to "The People's del monte foods uae Republic of China 2011 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin," 2011 has been 0.714% mortality, then the natural del monte foods uae growth rate of only 0.486% (1.2% -0.714% = 0.486 %, the future will continue to decline), also Ye Tan acknowledged by less than 0.5%. If Ye Tan is the natural growth rate of 1.2%, then in 2011 the birth rate was 1.914% (1.2% +0.714% = 1.914%) to Bureau of Statistics released 1,347,350,000 total population, 2011 should be 25.79 million births (134735 1.914% = 2579), much higher than the 2010 census, the population aged 0 13790000; apply the 2010 census standardized age specific fertility rates, births to 25.79 million, it should be 2.37 fertility rate is 2010 Census of 1.18 fertility rate twice as high. Ye Tan, a data will consume 8.0 billion 8000000 del monte foods uae participate census enumerators to shreds. del monte foods uae To achieve Ye Tan said, "growth recovered to 2.3%," then in 2011 the birth rate should del monte foods uae be 3.014% (2.3% +0.714% = 3.014%), births del monte foods uae should be 40610000 (134735 3.014% = 4061) , then the fertility rate should be 3.7. Chinese history, the highest annual number del monte foods uae of births del monte foods uae after the 1963 Great Leap Forward (compensatory birth peak), according to the 1964 census, the population was born in 1963, only 30.25 million. Birth Indian history last year and never more than 30 million. Visible Ye Tan's theory is based on wrong and outrageous and analysis of population data based on. In recognition of this critical error, del monte foods uae Ye Tan also written a series of articles population down? Of course, if she was as Song Jian, ChengEnFu, Li Xiaoping, China's population that wants to be reduced to 700 million, 500 million, 300 million, then it would do when he was on it. Birth and death rates are dynamic. Mother of the child is born, according to the 2010 census, 15-49-year-old women of childbearing age in 2011 the total reached a peak after negative growth; 20-29 golden age of women of childbearing age (2/3 of the children born to women in this age group) Also in 2011, after the peak reached 114 million in 2012, began to rapidly decrease to 2032 only 065 million (43% less than in 2011). Means that even to maintain current levels of fertility, birth rates also declined del monte foods uae sharply. With the elderly population continues to increase, China has an annual deaths in 1980 to 6.26 million in 1990 to 7.63 million, 8.13 million in 2000, 9.6 million in 2011. According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2009-2010 revised edition of "low-scheme (medium and high solution slightly more deaths per year), China's population will die each year of 13.5 million in 2030, 2050, 18,620,000; mortality will 2030 10.24% 2050 16.34%. del monte foods uae Declining birth rate, death rate puts increasing natural growth rate will continue to decline, China's population growth has been in the negative edge. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China has grown from natural population growth rate of 16.61 in 1987 down to 2011 almost straight line underground in 4.79 . China annual growth of population is almost straight line from the 1987's 18.15 million down to 6.44 million in 2011. The following table: China's del monte foods uae annual natural population growth rate and the annual population growth from 1987 to 2011 the natural growth del monte foods uae rate of linear regression fit to Year for the X coordinate, at an annual rate of natural increase for the Y coordinate, fitting equation as follows: y =-0.5125x + 1033.5, goodness of fit (R2) reached 0.9473. In this formula projected annual natural growth rate since 2011, the natural growth del monte foods uae rate will be negative in 2017. To National Bureau of Statistics 2011 13.4735 billion del monte foods uae people calculating, then China's population will reach 1.356 billion in 2016, after the peak in 2017 of negative del monte foods uae growth. From 1987 to 2011 the annual growth of population for linear regression fit to Year for the X coordinate, in order to increase the population of each year as Y coordinates, fitting equation as follows: y =-52.761x + 106561, goodness of fit (R2 ) reached 0.9588. del monte foods uae In this formula projected 2011 population annual growth every year thereafter, the annual population growth del monte foods uae will be negative in 2020, which is the Chinese population reached 1.365 billion in 2019 after the peak of negative growth. According to the United del monte foods uae Nations' World Population Prospects 2009-2010 revised edition of "low program China's population will reach 1.36 billion in 2017 after peaking del monte foods uae in 2018 began to negative growth in 2100 will be reduced to 500 million. In fact, the United Nations program for China, but also low too optimistic, such as the United Nations that the Chinese fertility rate was 1.64 in 2010, but the 2010 census showed that fertility is only 1.18. With a 2010 population structure and to predict fertility of 1.18, then the Chinese population will reach 1.34 billion del monte foods uae in 2017 after the peak of negative growth in 2100 to only 4.6 million people, only 6800 to 2200 people. If the fertility rate after 2010 could increase to 1.3, then the Chinese population del monte foods uae will reach 1.35 billion in 2019 after negative growth peak. Bottom: 1987-2011 years under natural population growth, the annual increase of population speculated future demographic changes evident that China is not facing the future population explosion, but the population collapse. Let the Chinese population to maintain the alternation of generations (in order to maintain economic prosperity), fertility need to reach about 2.3; due to infertility, single, DINK other people, need mainstream family life three, four or five students some families , part of the family born twelve children. If someone choose their own single, not raw or only one child, is beyond reproach (of course, need to pay higher social security payments, because Social Security is by tradition to maintain the population), but please do not deprive others of their right to have children. The author Yi Fu Xian University of Wisconsin researchers del monte foods uae for the British "Financial del monte foods uae Times" Chinese net contributors Source: British "Financial Times" Chinese network del monte foods uae http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001046122?page=1
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