According to national census data, in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 the sex ratio at birth 108.5,111.3,

Why Huangdao explosion mint industries limited casualties so heavy?
"Urgent need to promote the" treat "career"
Currently, the policy adjustments on fertility has become a hot issue academia and focus discussion, it is a topic of great concern for the government and the people. The reason, in addition to long-term strategic interests of the country and family planning mint industries limited related to the vital interests of millions of households, is an important background, September 25, 1980, the CPC Central Committee issued "on the control mint industries limited of population growth caused by all Communist Party members , open letter Youth League "(hereinafter referred to as" open letter "), called on party members to take the lead only to give birth to a child for one couple had only one child, and encourage delayed marriage and childbearing. Open letter specifically mentioned: "to three years later, the current mint industries limited population growth particularly intense mint industries limited problem can be mitigated, it may take a different population policy." This paper will discuss some personal views on China's current population situation and future policy direction.
China's one-child policy is rooted in the founding of rapid population growth. In 1953, when the first national census of the total population of 602 million, after experiencing the "Great Leap Forward" and the "three difficult" period, with a total population of over 700 million in 1964, a net increase of 100 million people with a 10 years. Then, in 1969 a total population of over 800 million, in 1974 more than 900 million, a net increase of twice every five years, 100 million people, a net increase of 100 million people cut in half the time than in the previous period, showing a runaway population growth situation, coupled with economic stagnation caused by the necessities of life (food, food, daily necessities, etc.) required ticket limit. In this specific historical conditions, the government began to consider the implementation of family planning in the country began in the early 1970s.
In 1973, the first national family planning work report formally proposed "a lot, just two or three more," and "late, thin, less" requirement, after the implementation of the policy has achieved good results. According to forecasts of experts, in order to achieve in the late 20th century the population mint industries limited less than 12 million goal, we must implement a couple had only one child's one-child policy. After the implementation of the contract responsibility system and because farmers have expanded fertility desires, while the population of the compensatory growth "Great Leap Forward" and "three difficult years" period also began to enter the reproductive stage, so this term birth rate and natural growth rate, total fertility rate has rebounded. In this context, the state began to tighten in the country's one-child policy, which is the "one-child" policy. 1980 "openness" published and noted that "In order to fight for our country in this century, the total population within 1.2 billion, the State Council has issued a call to the nation, only one couple one child."
Because there is a conflict between the implementation of the "one-child" policy and fertility mint industries limited desires of the masses, so that China's family planning mint industries limited work to become "the first difficulty." To narrow the gap between policy and fertility desire, easing Contradiction, April 13, 1984 Central forwarded "to report on family planning," the AAA files, mint industries limited requires specific policies to further improve the current family planning work. Mainly: a controlled manner in the countryside continue to bloom slightly larger hole, in accordance with the conditions of approval, you can have two children; resolutely stop the big hole that prohibited birth of a second child and a super program multiple births. So-called "open a small hole, blocking large hole." mint industries limited
After 2002, "Population and Family Planning Law" enacted in the country for family planning regulations prescribed fertility policy fine-tuning, and gradually formed the current family planning policy. So far, the rural and urban areas of Beijing, Shanghai, mint industries limited Tianjin, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Sichuan and other provinces mint industries limited and cities to implement six is only a couple of one-child policy; another 19 provincial regulations, in rural areas, if the first fetus is a girl, to allow the regeneration of a child, the "one-child half" mint industries limited policy; rural Hainan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, mint industries limited 5 provinces, implementing a policy of two children; There are six provincial regulations, in rural areas, is the only child of a party, you can have two children. Part of the less populated minority areas, sub-urban and rural areas were allowed to have two and three children (there is no policy in Tibet). In addition, local regulations provide that both husband and wife have only one child, you can have two kids.
Family planning policy, so that the momentum of China's rapid population growth is slowing down. China's population growth rate of 25.83 from 1970 to 1980 dropped 11.87 , the 2011 population growth rate of only 4.8 . As fertility levels (Note: usually "total fertility rate" mint industries limited (TFR) of this indicator to reflect a woman's lifetime reproductive number of children, this is a decision mint industries limited of a national population policy major indices, as the field of economic development, if you want to achieve GDP generation replacement level, TFR should be 2.1) by 1970 dropped to 5.79 in 1980, 2.26 in 2010, according to experts in accordance with the more accurate "Six P" data, we estimate that China's total fertility rate has been below 1.5. In fact, in 1998, China's population growth rate began less than 10 (to 9.14 ), the total fertility rate since 1991 is below the replacement level of generations, of 1.65, has since been stable at low fertility level stage. Completion of this process, our only took about 30 years, while Western countries generally need about a hundred years or even longer.
The so-called population problem is the system and the population between economic, social, environmental and resource imbalance, conflicts and paradoxes of its quantity, quality, structure and distribution of the resulting changes mint industries limited in the course of operation. If the early 1970s to implement the family planning policy is to address population growth, then the current situation of China's population and macro socio-economic environment faced by a major shift and profound changes, from the intrinsic properties mint industries limited of the population, China The population problem has a number of questions from a single number to multiple problems, quality, structure, distribution and other changes, and these issues are intertwined and influence each other; from the external macro-environment, resources and the environment mint industries limited due to poor reversibility, China population pressure on resources and the environment is still large, is still the key factor constraining economic and social development. Compared with the past, China's population situation is more serious challenges posed by population becomes more acute.
"Six P" of China's total population reached 1.339 billion, with a "census" of 7390 increased compared to ten million, an increase of 5.84%, the average annual growth rate of 0.57%. Since 2003, China's number of births basically stable at around 16 million, the average number mint industries limited of deaths at around 8.9 million. With the population aging rapidly, the death toll rose, the annual increase in population will decrease. According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects (2010 Revision) mint industries limited "on the Chinese population," the plan "predicts China's total population will reach 1.4 billion mint industries limited less than the peak after the start into negative growth in 2026, at the end of the century fell to 941 million . It can be said, regardless of how future changes in size, the larger the population has always been our most basic, most important, the most prominent conditions, contradiction between population and environmental resources is always present.
2010, China's population aged 60 and over 1.77 billion people, accounting for 13.26 percent of the population, of which the population aged 65 and over 1.19 million people, 8.87% of the total population, China has entered the aging society. Since the first of the baby boom in the early days, 60 years later, we are facing the first aging peak. The next 20 years is China's fastest-growing elderly population period. 2013, China's population aged 60 or older will exceed 200 million, which will double to 400 million years ago, 2033, with an average annual increase of 10 million, the highest year will increase by more than 14 million. An aging population and declining birthrate family, size small, structural diversification, and the relationship between the discrete loose living and other characteristics tangled together, will put forward mint industries limited a serious challenge to the existing social security system. Some scholars believe that family planning has led to an aging population, this statement is not accurate. Population aging is an inevitable result of social and economic development, along with social and economic development, fertility decline spontaneously, plus improve the health of the population makes in life expectancy, population aging naturally, this is a common law of human society. Planned Parenthood just played a "boost" effect.
According to national census data, in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 the sex ratio at birth 108.5,111.3,116.9 and 118.08 respectively, showing upward trend and a serious deviation from the normal. Sex Ratio at Birth, means a lot of men surplus mint industries limited population mint industries limited unable to find marriage matching objects, inevitable mint industries limited marriage squeeze phenomenon. Marriage squeeze would lead to early marriage, pre-marital agreement (ie engagement) and mercenary marriages increased. Second, the male marriage squeeze would lead to couple the marriage age spreads, leading to adverse effects on the stability of marriage. Third, the decline in marriage squeeze will make family stability will lead to extramarital affairs and sexual offenses increased wedlock births and other phenomena. mint industries limited Fourth, the marriage squeeze will result in a sharp increase the cost of the wedding, and the last not marry often belong to the poor strata of the population.
A higher mint industries limited degree of social mobility of society, the more means being able to provide more opportunities mint industries limited and hope for the members of society, class structure mint industries limited of society more flexible, conflict of social groups are less likely to arise. Otherwise, at the bottom of the social hierarchy in the face of comparative advantage, will produce and accumulate energy from dissatisfaction, social alienation caused by friction and even social conflict. Due to the inflow stream at differences in the economic, social, culture, customs, lifestyle and other factors, the floating population in the inflow of social adaptation will become a more prominent issue. Further, go floating population will affect the outflow and inflow to social harmony and stability.
After completing a historic low fertility fertility transition into the community, in the face of a critical period of zero growth in population will soon turn negative growth of China's family planning policy to examine the impact on the future development and the population's economic and social effects of such impacts, it is a kind of socially responsible attitude. Any mistakes on population issues, will have long-term effects are difficult to reverse mint industries limited the economic and social development. Particularly on major policy adjustments fertility issues theoretically mint industries limited we must keep sober, clear-cut attitude, once bungled opportunities, will result mint industries limited in a significant loss of economic and social development. Before exploring China's family planning policy adjustment, it is necessary to use a global perspective and vision for the theory and history lessons on some of the world's low birthrate national population control.
Western population control theory experienced a rich historic turning point. As we all know, the traditional "control theory" is based on population growth will produce a series of social problems, the consequences of population growth mint industries limited is necessarily a negative premise of such a theory. And to lay the theoretical foundation for quite a long time to become mainstream thinking is that demographic Coale - Hoover models. This model system seen in 1958 by the Coale and Hoover (Coale.A.J and E.M.Hoove) published "low-income countries population growth and economic development," a book that the model that "high fertility caused by increasing the proportion of national income in the consumer part of the reduction mint industries limited in the proportion of the investment part. "capital mint industries limited - the proportion of the labor force," the fall, thus reducing the growth rate of per capita income growth and a long time, this model has been advocated to control people theoretical basis of population growth until 1983, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Committee instructed the National Council of the population of nine renowned scholars for research in the relationship between population growth and economic development mint industries limited to assess After more than two years of efforts, in 1986 published a report entitled . "Population Growth and Economic Development: Some Policy Issues" Report from the aspects of resources, pollution, and other aspects of employment, proof of fertility change does not directly mint industries limited affect the level of per capita income, subtle, indirect original classic model presents a challenge In terms of per capita concept, we need to see is the denominator population, but also to see the molecule has a population of labor and consumer population as a contribution to economic growth, mint industries limited the report revealed again "Population is neutral phenomenon" (ie neither good nor bad) ideas, but it is still considered family planning is necessary, despite the gradual mint industries limited economic growth momentum driven by the resource-driven to innovation-driven investment in transition again, mint industries limited but the human dependence on environmental resources is always present, the high fertility rate is inadequate taken.
At the same time, since the 1980s, European countries continued to decline mint industries limited in fertility, and reduced fertility in some countries continue to maintain a very low level, this phenomenon is caused widespread concern in the western population of academia as well as the general public, many scholars in Europe continued low fertility phenomenon and its causes were discussed, mint industries limited one of the most influential theories which are LUTZ (W. Lutz), who proposed "low fertility trap." According to Lutz et al point of view, a country once TFR dropped to 1.5 or less, it will produce a "self-reinforcing mechanism of low fertility," So, just as the fertility rate fell into the "trap", it is difficult return mint industries limited to rise to 1.5 or more. The theoretical ideas for "low fertility (assuming mint industries limited that caught mint industries limited the so-called low fertility trap) - small number of children - less potential mother - the next generation of the number of births less - further reducing fertility rates (the so-called 'self-reinforcing' ) --- hard to get rid of the trap. " Why is the number of next-generation mint industries limited reproductive less, Lutz, etc. from the perspective of sociology and economics to give an explanation, one is due to socialization and social mint industries limited learning mint industries limited effect, the parent of the actual birth rate (the number of offspring or siblings) will affect ideal family size progeny, offspring ideal family size would affect the actual level of fertility of offspring, and so forth. Second, if the couple expected revenues relative to their ability in terms of higher levels of desire, they are more optimistic about the future, will marry and have children feel more relaxed; Instead, they will get married afraid to give birth. Whether Lutz et al theory is correct, but the fact is that in addition to Sweden and France, no country enters a low fertility level fertility trap successfully re-raised to 1.5 or more, let alone sustain human generation replacement level.
Fertility decline and population aging has become the world's two most important demographic change