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Why Huangdao explosion casualties so heavy?
"Urgent need to promote the" treat "career"
China's population collapse is a real risk population bahan taslan policy for China is undoubtedly the most significant policy issues. The coming decades, even centuries, China's future, in addition to the direction of political reform, is the direction of the population policy. There is nothing bahan taslan more important problems than these two problems. China's climate and environmental issues are actually depends on solving these two problems. bahan taslan Listen to the views of various parties always do no harm. This article reproduced below has a unique perspective, it is worth a read. Reprinted: Yi Fu Yin as the British bahan taslan "Financial Times" Chinese net contributors Miss Ye Tan published several articles bahan taslan calling for China to continue to practice family planning. Many users want me to refute her, I laugh. August 14, 2012 Ye Tan again published an article in the British "Financial Times" Chinese online "anti-intellectual theories of population growth can be laid to rest (a)." In the end of the article, said: "We can not expect those who live in sparsely populated U.S. state, and irrelevant to the issue of China's population, advocates liberalization of fertility people." Since Ms. Yip pick a door to reciprocate. bahan taslan I also had to write a few words. Ye Tan Ph.D. Department of History, Fudan University, the school population history by Professor Ge Jianxiong, Cao Shuji great impact, such as her recent article said: "Mr. bahan taslan Ge Jianxiong editor of six volumes bahan taslan of the" China Population History bahan taslan "(published by Fudan University Press, 2000) is a contemporary history of the study population most authoritative writings China, Mr. Cao Shuji writing of which four, five volumes of Ming and Qing Dynasties discuss population can glimpse see the leopard spots. "she quoted Ge, Cao population data to illustrate the continuing family planning necessity. Cao Shuji think when you have been caught in the Malthusian trap Ming. To avoid the Malthusian trap, China should implement family planning. Professor James Lee and Wang Feng Qing do not think China into the Malthusian trap. Cao Shuji retorted: "Faced with James Lee and other new theory, scholars not only need to rewrite the history of Chinese population since the Qing Dynasty, the economic and social history, bahan taslan and even had to re-lay the theoretical understanding of contemporary China's family planning bahan taslan policy." ( "Historical Research" 2002 1) I am "on the population and the number of the Qing dynasty, Mr. Ge Jianxiong questionable" ("Social Science Forum" in 2010 the first one) in refuted Ge Jianxiong, Cao Shuji population of the Qing dynasty perspective. Ye Tan said: "According to population estimates by experts, China's population in 2006 the total fertility rate (ie a couple lifetime number of children) by about 1.8 rose to 1.87, from an annual average of 0.02 if the slight rebound in 2020 more than 1.45 billion people control objectives beyond 2900. "Miss Ye Tan can rest assured, experts bahan taslan estimated the population has always been wrong (since 1980, has never had accurate), the 2010 census confirmed the 1996-2010 birth average rate of only 1.4 yuan, of which only 1.18 in 2010. 1.18 decrease in fertility means that the next generation is almost half than the previous generation. Ye Tan said, "Due to a stable environment, and the government encourages ...... population rose from 540 million in 1949 to (the late 1960s) amazing over 800 million and we can not forget the tragic death of their folder Ditch the right, but the population in the wild era of growth, because of population growth, but low-cost human lives, human dignity is negligible. meaningful life value of the individual, as the population becomes eye-popping numbers, the individual's life is dust concealed. "In fact, after 1949 China's population growth is not a "government encouragement", in fact, at that time China's population growth is synchronized with the world, in 1950, 1970, 1980, China accounted for only 22% of the world population, fertility rates have all the time in the world in the development and Like the high country. China's population increase is due to the decline in mortality, is "dead less", not "born of too much", is due to the life expectancy of 35 years from 1950 to 1970 to extend the 63-year-old (2010 World Bank data) . It is the survival of the population was laid after the reform and opening up economic boom demographic base. "Population growth, human life but cheap" is not the fact that the U.S. population growth rate is faster than China and Europe, the United States is not necessarily cost more lives. Ye Tan said: "If calculated bahan taslan in accordance with the birth rate of 1.2%, after 20 years of population growth in China will reach 1.65 billion; once growth recovered to 2.3%, then 20 years later, China's population will reach 2,048,500,000, then, China was the first to relocate to Mars, I'm afraid to find resources of space. visible on exponential growth, once a breakthrough growth areas will be explosive growth. "Obviously, Ye Tan is the birth rate and natural growth rate confuse. The natural growth bahan taslan rate = birth rate - mortality. If Ye Tan is the birth rate of 1.2 percent, bahan taslan according to "The People's Republic of China 2011 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin", in 2011 the mortality rate is 0.714% already, bahan taslan then the natural growth rate of only 0.486% (1.2% -0.714% = 0.486 %, the future will continue to decline), but also lower than Ye Tan acknowledged by 0.5%. If Ye Tan is the natural growth rate of 1.2%, then in 2011 the birth rate was 1.914% (1.2% +0.714% = 1.914%) to Bureau of Statistics 1,347,350,000 total population, in 2011 to 25.79 million births should (134735 bahan taslan 1.914% = 2579), much higher than the 2010 census the population aged 0 13,790,000; apply the 2010 census standardized age-specific fertility rates, births to 25.79 million, then the fertility rate should be 2.37, is 2010 Census 1.18 fertility rate twice. Ye Tan's data will consume 8.0 billion bahan taslan census 8,000,000 census participation shreds. To achieve Ye Tan said, "growth recovered to 2.3%", then in 2011 the birth rate should be 3.014% (2.3% +0.714% = 3.014%), births should 40,610,000 (134735 3.014% = 4061) , then the fertility rate should be 3.7. Most births a year in the Chinese history after the 1963 Great Leap Forward (compensatory birth peak), according to the 1964 census, the population was born in 1963, only 30.25 million. India-born population in history last year and never more than 30 million. Ye Tan visible theory is based on ridiculously wrong population data and analysis on. Recognizing this critical error after Ye Tan has written a series of articles population down? Of course, if she like Song, Cheng Enfu, Li Xiaoping as China wants to reduce bahan taslan the population to 700 million, 500 million, 300 million, then it would do when he was on it. Birth and death rates are dynamic. Mother bahan taslan of the child is born, according to the 2010 census the total 15-49 year old women of childbearing age peaked in 2011 began a negative growth; golden age of 20-29 years for women of childbearing age (children 2/3 of the women in this age group is born) also reached 114 million after the peak in 2011, started its rapid decrease in 2012 to 2032 only 065 million (decrease of 43% over 2011). Means that even to maintain the current level of fertility, birth rates also declined sharply. With the continuous increase in the elderly population, China has a population of deaths bahan taslan each year in 1980 to 6.26 million in 1990 to 7.63 million, 8.13 million in 2000, 9.6 million in 2011. According to the UN low plan "World Population Prospects - 2010 Revision" (the middle and high solution slightly more deaths per year), China's population will die each year 13.5 million in 2030, 2050, 18,620,000; mortality will 2030 10.24% 2050 16.34%. bahan taslan The declining birth rate, death rate puts increasing natural growth rate will continue to decline, China's population growth has been negative edge. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China has gone from natural bahan taslan population growth rate of 16.61 in 1987 almost bahan taslan straight down to the ground in 2011 4.79 . China was also almost bahan taslan linear increase in population from 1987 to 18.15 million in 2011 down to 6.44 million. The following table: China's annual natural population growth and population growth in the 1987 to 2011 the rate of natural bahan taslan increase for linear regression fit to the X coordinate of the year, at an annual rate of natural increase is the Y coordinate, fitting equation as follows: y =-0.5125x + 1033.5, goodness of fit (R2) to reach 0.9473. In this formula after the projected bahan taslan 2011 annual natural growth bahan taslan rate, natural growth rate in 2017 will start to be negative. In 2011 the population bahan taslan 13.4735 million National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese population will reach 1.356 billion peak in 2016, began in 2017 negative growth. From 1987 to 2011 the annual growth of the population for linear regression fit to the X coordinate of the year, an annual increase in population of Y coordinates, fitting bahan taslan equation bahan taslan as follows: y =-52.761x + 106561, goodness of fit (R2 ) reached 0.9588. In this formula derived in 2011 after years of annual population growth, the annual increase in population will begin in 2020 is negative, that is, China's population reached 1.365 billion after the start of the peak negative growth in 2019. After the United Nations' World Population bahan taslan Prospects - 2010 revised edition of "low bahan taslan plan, China's population will reach 1.36 billion peak in 2017, the negative growth in 2018 will be reduced to 500 million in 2100. In fact, low-United Nations program for China, but also overly optimistic, such as the United Nations considers Chinese fertility rate was 1.64 in 2010, but the 2010 census showed that the fertility rate is only 1.18. Conducted using 2010 population structure and fertility forecast 1.18, then China's population will reach 1.34 billion after the peak of negative bahan taslan growth beginning in 2017, to only 4.6 million people in 2100, only 6800 to 2200 people. If in 2010 the fertility rate could be increased bahan taslan to 1.3, then the Chinese population will reach 1.35 billion after the beginning of the peak of negative growth in 2019. Below: According to 1987-2011 years of natural population growth, the annual bahan taslan increase in population speculated future demographic changes evident that China is not facing the future population explosion, but the population collapse. Let the Chinese population to maintain the alternation of generations (in order to maintain economic prosperity), fertility needs to reach about 2.3; due to infertility, there is a single, Dink and other people, you need to have three main families, some families bahan taslan of four or five students , part of the family born twelve children. If someone choose their own single, not raw or only one child, is beyond reproach (of course, need to pay higher social security payments, bahan taslan because Social Security is by tradition bahan taslan to sustain the population), but please do not deprive the rights of others to have children.
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